Warc forecasts lift in global adspend

Advertising markets worldwide will continue to rebound in 2011, despite the instability in Japan and the Middle East, according to the latest Warc Consensus Forecast.

Figures collated by the marketing intelligence service forecast that global adspend growth for 2011 is at +5.1%, up from the +4.5% consensus figure in November. Although this figure remains below the industry average of 6.8% growth [as seen between 1981 and 2009], it remains an upbeat forecast when compared with a recent downward revised forecast by ZenithOptimedia last month. According to Warc, global ad spend will continue to pick-up and reach 6.2% in 2012.

The BRIC markets are expected to dominate the top four country spots across all forecast media. India is tipped to lead the current growth spurt with adspend forecast to increase 17.5% this year, along with Russia (+16.2%), China (+13.3%) and Brazil (+10.8%).

Across all 13 markets covered by the Consensus Forecast, all are expected to record adspend increases for 2011 and 2011, except Japan. Australia and Canada are predicted strong performances with annual growth in excess of 5%. In the US and Western Europe, ad growth is expected to remain slow, rising between 2.5-3.5% this year.

In terms of individual media, online advertising is tipped to grow by around 13% over the next year, with a 5.7% lift for TV adspend and 6.2% rise for outdoor.

Suzy Young, data editor, Warc said: “Despite recent jolts to the world economy, the recovery in the global ad market remains concrete. The latest forecast shows impressive levels of growth, particularly across the BRICs. It is encouraging to note that many sources now point to a strengthening ad market.”

Warc makes its forecasts based on a weighted average of predictions from various sources including advertising agencies, media monitoring companies, industry bodies and its own data.

Jenni Baker, Londo