GroupM revises 2012 forecast

Anticipated spend on the Olympics, European football and US presidential election will contribute to an estimated 6.4% growth in global ad spend next year, according to a revised GroupM forecast.

GroupM’s July This Year, Next Yearreport suggested that 2012 global ad spend would reach $540.3bn, a 6.8% increase over 2011, but the WPP company has now revised down itsearlier prediction to a 6.4% increase next year to $522bn. The predicted 6.4% growth next year, however, is significantly higher than ZenithOptimedia’s recent forecast that predicted 4.7% growth in 2012.

For 2011, in light of the current European economic crisis, GroupM also revised down its forecast to $490bn, from its $506bn estimate in July.

In the US, 2011 ad spend will reach $147bn, a 3.3% increase over 2010. And for 2012, should reach $153bn, up 4% from 2011. Both figures were also down from the previous report, predicting 3.8% and 4.2% increase in 2011 and 2012, respectively.

“Japan’s advertising recovery has proved substantially more vigorous and resilient than we forecast in our mid-year report,” says GroupM futures director Adam Smith. “Additionally, the so-called ‘quadrennial effect’ of the American elections, the Olympics and European football are worth an estimated 1% of incremental growth in 2012.”

Digital is estimated to provide 43% of growth in 2012, with global digital ad spend expected to hit $98.2bn, a 16% increase over 2011’s $84.7bn.

“We expect digital to comprise 22% of all measured ad investment in mature western economies in 2012, and 12% in the faster-growing world,” adds Smith. “The predicted respective digital growth rates in 2012 are 11% and 37%, so the faster-growing world is catching up fast.”

Earlier today, M&M reported that ZenithOptimedia has slashed its 2012 global ad spend growth prediction to just 4.7%, down from its October estimate of 5.3% and its July forecast of 5.9%.

Jenni Baker, London