US adspend outlook improves

LONDON/WASHINGTON: The outlook for the US ad market is improving ahead of other key countries, Warc's latest Consensus Ad Forecast shows.

Within the 13 markets measured by the new research, US adspend received the largest single upgrade in forecast growth. The world's largest ad market is now predicted to raise expenditure by 4.1% this year, a rise of +0.8pp from the January Forecast.

The Forecast, which is compiled based on a weighted average of adspend predictions at current prices from ad agencies, media monitoring companies and other industry bodies, as well as Warc's own data, indicated that global expenditure will be raised by 5.3% in 2012 and by 5.4% in 2013.

But European markets are still expected to lag behind in 2012, with the UK to grow by 2.4%, Germany by 1.6% and France by 1%. Spain, one of the nations hit hardest by the recent economic volatility, is predicted to cut adspend by -3.2%, the only nation covered by the Forecast expected to register a net decline this year.

Turning to the fast-growth economies, China is the nation expected to deliver the highest annual adspend increase for 2012, on +14.8%. Russia, India and Brazil will also return double-digit yearly growth, on +13.6%, +11.4% and +10.2% respectively.

Across the world, marketers are predicted to benefit in 2012 from the "quadrennial effect" of the Olympic Games and the US Presidential election.

Suzy Young, data editor at Warc, said: "The outlook for global advertising in the first few months of 2012 has remained broadly in line with the end of last year.

"However, the lack of growth across Europe in the first quarter is now starting to weigh on confidence and could cause analysts to lower forecasts as the year goes on."

By media channel, the Consensus Ad Forecast indicated that global online advertising will receive the highest budget increases, recording an average of +14% globally for both 2012 and 2013.

But print media is set to decline further this year, with newspaper budgets cut by -1.5% and magazines by -1.1%.

Data sourced from Warc; additional content by Warc staff, 30 April 2012 http://www.warc.com/LatestNews/News/EmailNews.news?ID=29773&Origin=WARCNewsEmail