PwC: Slow growth in TV until 2016

Free-to-air television advertising revenue is predicted to drop by 4.5% next year with a compound annual growth rate of just 1.8% from 2012 to 2016.

In its annual Entertainment and Media Outlook 2012 to 2016, PricewaterhouseCoopers predicts that advertising revenues will grow 13% over the period, with continued economic uncertainty at home and aboard being blamed on the relatively low figure.

FTA revenues will drop to $3.2bn in 2013 from $3.3bn in 2012. They will then increase in 2014 by 1.8%, rising by 5.2% in 2015 and 3.4% in 2016 to $3.5bn.

This year’s growth of 3.4% is attributed to the Olympics, but the report warns that global economic uncertainty and challenging retail conditions will affect ad revenues.

In the subscription TV market, PwC is forecasting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.9%, with an increase of 4.7% in 2013, 5.5% in 2014 and 4.4% in 2015 to $4.7bn.

It’s worse news for both newspaper and magazines with a CAGR of negative 5.1% and 5% respectively according to PwC. Revenues in the consumer magazine market are predicted to fall by 6.6% in 2013, then 5.6% in 2014, 1.1% in 2015 and down by 2.8% in 2016 to $484m. While print ad spend in magazines is predicted to drop by 5% over the next five years, digital will rise by 20.6% to $66m according to the report.

Newspapers will fare even worse according to PwC, ad revenues down 6.6% in 2013, 5.8% in 2014, 2.2% in 2015 and 3.7% in 2016 to$2.8bn, a decrease of $575m from 2012 to 2016. However digital advertising is forecast to grow with a CAGR of 8.3% to $390m in 2016.