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Starcom revising Aus growth rates down from 3.8% to just 1.3%
There is yet more gloom for media and advertising markets with Starcom revising growth rates down from 3.8% to just 1.3% this year, just days after Carat cut its forecast from 2.9% to 1%.
The Publicis-owned agency predicted that ad growth would reach 3.8% in December last year, however following average growth of 1.8% in the first half of 2012, the agency has now reforecast down.
Starcom is predicting that the second half increase by just 0.8%, according to its Media Future mid-year update.
This year advertisers have reported the lowest proportion of increased ad spend in the three years since the mid-year update was launched. Only 38% of budgets increased in the first six months compared with 44% at the same time last year.
“These figures reflect a trend we have observed over the past few years, with advertisers exercising a cautious approach to spending in a climate where there is still uncertainty over the global economic conditions,” Starcom MediaVest CEO John Sintras said.
In the first six months of the year total online spending – taking in display/banner, search and mobile – was up for 62% of advertisers whose budgets have increased. Free-to-air TV and newspapers were nominated as areas of significantly increased ad spend by 38% of advertisers whose budgets have increased followed by STV, radio, magazines and out of home all on 25%.
The mid-year update found that among advertisers whose budget has increased, most (62%) were expecting the level of change, but among those whose budget decreased, most (67%) did not expect the size of their budget change.
In the second half only 33% of advertisers are predicting an increase in their advertising budgets, continuing a downward movement seen over the past two years (this figure was 45% in the 2010 mid-year update).
“The past two years of the survey have shown the mid-year update is a much closer forecast to actual spend, so it’s likely to be a very tight end to 2012,” Sintras said.
The Starcom Media Futures survey is conducted by McNair Ingenuity on Starcom’s behalf via online methodologies with 600 advertisers asked to take part.